Publications

Original research and analysis from The Alliance Futures Initiative. Our publications explore strategic competition, alliance dynamics, and geopolitical challenges through innovative methodologies including red team exercises and scenario-based analysis.

Red Team Report
Pacific Islands Red Team Event Report
Examining PRC Objectives in the Pacific Islands

A strategic red team exercise examining PRC objectives and decision-making in the Pacific Islands region. Expert participants roleplayed PRC officials to assess potential responses to four regional scenarios including the Kanton Island Lease, Deep-Sea Mining Competition, Marshall Islands Diplomatic Switch, and the Bougainville Crisis.

Read Report → PDF ↓
Red Team Report
Ukraine Red Team Event Report
China’s Strategic Calculus on Ukraine, Europe & Taiwan

A strategic red team exercise exploring three potential outcomes of the Russia–Ukraine war and their implications for China’s strategic calculus in both Europe and Taiwan. Three scenarios—Blooming Sunflowers, Bear in Charge, and Wise Dragon—reveal how Beijing may respond to different peace settlements.

Read Report → PDF ↓

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